Monday, September 28, 2009

College Football AP Poll Case Study: Miami and Oklahoma

Is Bob Stoops, head coach of the Oklahoma Sooner football team, paying those who vote in the AP Poll? Is he sending them charming fruit baskets? He must be. This is the only possible explanation for the Oklahoma Sooners sitting at number 8 in the Poll.

This week, the Sooners travel to South Florida to take on the Miami Hurricanes. Like Oklahoma, Miami is 2-1. Unlike Oklahoma, Miami is ranked 17.

Let's take a closer look at these two teams. The Sooners opened their season with a loss to Bringham Young University, currently ranked number 20 in the AP Poll. The Sooners' two wins came over Idaho State University (Division 1-AA) and the University of Tulsa, member of the all-powerful Conference USA.

Meanwhile, Miami's two wins came over Florida State and Georgia Tech, two teams that were ranked until Miami rocked them like hurricanes. Miami's one loss occurred this past Saturday at the hands of the Virginia Tech Hokies in an extremely hostile environment and rainy weather in Blacksburg, Virginia. For a team that passes as much as the Hurricanes, those two factors are basically the kiss of death.

True, Oklahoma lost its starting quarterback and Heisman trophy winner Sam Bradford during the loss to Bringham Young in the first game of the season. Bradford sprained his AC joint in his right shoulder. However, the potential for Bradford to return in his usual form after an injury to his throwing shoulder does not warrant a top 10 ranking. Moreover, Oklahoma’s backup Landry Jones has been more than serviceable at the quarterback position, completing over 60% of his passes for 673 yards.

Those that are lucky enough to have a say in these polls should investigate the teams further before declaring a team like Oklahoma to be at least nine spots better than a team like the Miami. If the Canes can stay focused after the disappointing loss to Virginia Tech, the Canes have the talent to beat Oklahoma. Then Miami will finally take its rightful place on top of Oklahoma in the polls.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Quality in Fantasy DOES NOT EQUAL Quality in General

I am a fantasy sports nerd. However, in addition to a fantasy football fan, I am a real football fan, which is more than I can say for many alleged football fans who participate in fantasy sports. To ensure that you will be respected as a legitimate NFL fan, I ask you, fantasy sports enthusiast, to stop evaluating the value of an NFL player solely based on his statistics.

Last year with the Broncos, quarterback Jay Cutler completed 62.3 percent of his passes for over 4500 yards, and threw for 25 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. He was subsequently voted into the Pro Bowl. He also single-handedly lost the AFC West for his team when he threw a red zone interception against Buffalo in the last game of the season. Still, people continue to describe Cutler as a "good NFL quarterback," citing his statistics and a poor Broncos defense. The Broncos defense had nothing to do with Cutler's interception. That mistake was his, and his alone. He was presented with the opportunity to win, and he failed. Tom Brady would not have failed.

True, statistics are an important means of evaluating a player. Some statistics are simply good, and there is no other analysis needed. For example, in 2007, Brady completed 68.9 percent of his passes, throwing 50 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Those numbers speak for themselves.

However, football is the ultimate team sport. Rushing for 100 yards per game does not automatically mean that particular back is good. It may have been a product of great offensive line or the effective use of the West Coast offense. What makes running backs like Walter Payton so great goes way beyond his statistics to the intangibles. Payton had fantastic field vision and could break tackles like very few running backs ever had. He saw the lane open up before it even happened. On any given Sunday, his statistics may have resembled the statistics of Joe Morris. In fact, Morris produced more touchdowns than Payton, so Morris probably would have produced more fantasy points. Joe Morris was no Walter Payton.